Retirement Villages Market Review 2024
Our 12th annual report finds that as New Zealand’s population ages, the need for retirement villages and aged care will increase at a rapid rate, potentially widening the gap between supply and demand.
- Gavin Read
- Hina Imran
In our latest analysis of the Retirement Villages and Aged Care sectors across Aotearoa, 2,298 units were completed in the year ending 31st December 2023, which is higher than the 5-year average growth in units of 1,913, and the 10-year average of 1,696 units. Despite this growth in average unit completion per year, looking at developments currently under construction, 10,174 units are to be delivered by the end of 2033, which will result in an estimated supply shortage of 8,367 units, based on the current trajectory of demand.
We estimate that in addition to the current development pipeline, an added 932 units need to be built every year, for each of the next 25 years, for the industry to meet its demand by 2048.
The gulf between supply and demand has been exacerbated by the inflationary economic environment, which has impacted the construction cost of retirement villages.
Despite the forecast shortfall in overall supply and heightened construction costs, luxury retirement villages are on the rise with Oceania, Generus Living Group, and Northbrook, among others, developing villages with high-end amenities. These amenities include concierge facilities, chauffeur-driven vehicles available for use to residents, on-site guest accommodation, pet-friendly units, and excellent restaurants, catering to the modern demands of the next generation of retirement village residents.
Following the trend from the last few years, retirement village operators continued to receive high levels of enquiry through 2023, which supports their future development strategies, including at the emerging high-end facilities that are becoming more prevalent across the country.
Download our latest New Zealand Retirement Villages and Aged Care Whitepaper to read more analysis on the supply and demand trends in these sectors.
