Christchurch Industrial Market Snapshot Q4 2019

Demand

The 2H19 vacancy survey that was conducted at the end of the year revealed that all tracked precincts of Christchurch had shown an increase in vacancy apart from the Woolston/Bromley areas. The overall vacancy rate has only increased 61 bps from the 1H19 vacancy survey to 5.5%. Prime stock continues to be higher in demand with a 3.9% vacancy rate compared to secondary that sits at 6.7%.

Net absorption has gone into negative numbers for the first time since 2H15 with the majority of this seen in the Wigram/Middleton areas.

Supply

The stock base continues to expand, albeit much slower to recent years with an overall change of just over 3,000 sqm over 6 months. This is versus previous recordings, especially 2016 and 2017, with year totals each of over 100,000 sqm. This indicates a noteworthy reduction in the supply response.

The amount of stock under construction remains steady with the largest project on the go having 11,700 sqm, 5,900 sqm and 5,700 sqm.

Asset Performance

We have observed a range change in the combined prime industrial rents, but the average remains unchanged at $117 psm. Secondary combined rents have seen a slight increase from $86 psm to $88 psm over the last quarter. Incremental increases are forecast for the next 5 years.

Average yields saw no movement over the fourth quarter, still sitting at all-time lows of 6.23% for prime and 7.13% for secondary buildings.

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